ADF Insurgency (Uganda–DR Congo)

Current Status

According to Reuters and AFP reports, the ADF/ISCAP insurgency continues to generate mass-casualty attacks against civilians in eastern DR Congo despite ongoing joint Ugandan-Congolese military operations.

Situation 2026

• AFP reports that ADF/ISCAP cells continue conducting raids and ambushes in North Kivu and Ituri provinces, with attacks targeting civilian populations in remote villages
• Reuters indicates the joint UPDF-FARDC operation has faced logistical and coordination challenges in the dense Rwenzori terrain, limiting operational effectiveness
• DW reports recurring cycles of ADF attacks followed by military sweeps, but sources note the insurgent group has demonstrated sustained capacity to regroup and conduct attacks
• According to UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), insecurity in eastern Congo has restricted humanitarian access to affected populations
• AP reports that the conflict has complicated broader regional stability, with concerns expressed by analysts about ADF links to transnational militant networks

Background

The Allied Democratic Forces originated in Uganda in 1996 as an Islamist insurgent group seeking to overthrow the Kampala government, according to multiple sources. The group reoriented its operations toward the Uganda-DR Congo border region in the Rwenzori and North Kivu areas, and pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in 2019, becoming Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP), per BBC and AFP reporting. Joint Operation Shujaa between Uganda's UPDF and DR Congo's FARDC was launched in 2021 to counter the escalating insurgency.

Humanitarian Impact

• The UN estimates thousands have been killed since the ADF insurgency began in 1996, with civilian casualties in eastern Congo accelerating significantly since the group's Islamic State affiliation, per OCHA data
• Reuters reports mass displacement in North Kivu and Ituri, with tens of thousands of civilians fleeing ADF-affected areas; ICRC indicates limited access to healthcare and water in conflict zones
• AFP cites local NGO reports documenting alleged targeted attacks on religious minorities and allegations of forced recruitment, though comprehensive verification remains limited due to access restrictions

Outlook

Analysts cited by Reuters and DW suggest that absent significant increases in military resources and cross-border coordination, the ADF/ISCAP insurgency is likely to sustain low-to-mid-level operational tempo in the near term. However, sources note uncertainty regarding potential shifts in militant group strategy or regional geopolitical interventions that could escalate or de-escalate the conflict.

Key Actors

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