ADF Insurgency (Uganda–DR Congo)

Current Status

According to Reuters and BBC reporting, the ADF/ISCAP insurgency continues to drive mass-casualty attacks across the Uganda–DR Congo border, with joint Ugandan–Congolese operations ongoing as of 2024.

Situation 2026

• AFP reports the ADF/ISCAP has intensified attacks on civilian populations in North Kivu, including villages and displacement camps, with tactics increasingly focused on mass-casualty operations rather than military targets
• According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the joint Operation Shujaa—launched in 2021 by Uganda's UPDF and DR Congo's FARDC—continues with mixed operational results and ongoing coordination challenges
• BBC and Reuters indicate that ADF cells maintain operational capacity despite military operations, with fighters regrouping across porous border areas and utilizing civilian areas as cover
• Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have documented allegations of civilian casualties and displacement linked to both insurgent attacks and military counteroperations
• AP reports that local governance and security services in eastern Congo remain severely strained, limiting state capacity to protect populations in remote Rwenzori and North Kivu zones

Background

The Allied Democratic Forces emerged in Uganda in 1996 as an Islamist insurgent group initially focused on overthrowing the Kampala government. Following military pressure and territorial losses in Uganda, the ADF shifted its operational base across the border into eastern DR Congo's North Kivu and Ituri provinces, where it has since pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (now operating as ISCAP—Islamic State Central Africa Province). The Rwenzori region and North Kivu have become epicenters of the conflict, with civilian populations bearing the heaviest toll.

Humanitarian Impact

• ICRC and UN OCHA report that the conflict has displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians, with 2023–2024 estimates indicating ongoing displacement from active conflict zones in North Kivu and Ituri
• MSF and ICRC sources document elevated rates of civilian casualties, sexual violence used as a weapon of war, and severe restrictions on humanitarian access to affected areas
• UN agencies report that health facilities, water systems, and food distribution networks have been disrupted, leaving civilian populations vulnerable to secondary health crises and malnutrition

Outlook

Reuters and DW analysis suggest the ADF/ISCAP insurgency will likely persist in the medium term given the group's ability to reconstitute forces, exploit ungoverned border spaces, and maintain support networks. Without sustained regional military coordination, improved intelligence sharing, and parallel civilian protection and stabilization efforts, the trajectory points toward continued localized attacks and civilian displacement rather than rapid operational defeat.

Key Actors

Track ADF Insurgency (Uganda–DR Congo) and 65+ conflicts — free

Create a free account to save this conflict, get AI intel briefs every week, and set escalation alerts. No credit card.