Intelligence Summary
Situation 2026
ISIS remnants persist in rural and mountainous areas of central and northern Iraq, particularly in Anbar, Nineveh, and Salah ad-Din provinces. The group conducts sporadic attacks including ambushes, IEDs, and assassinations targeting security forces, government officials, and civilian infrastructure. The intensity remains limited with low casualty rates relative to peak conflict years.
Background
ISIS's territorial defeat in Iraq by 2017-2018 fragmented the organization into dispersed cells conducting asymmetric warfare. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) continue counter-insurgency operations against remaining ISIS operatives attempting to reconstitute networks and carry out attacks.
Humanitarian Impact
Limited humanitarian impact at current low severity levels. Occasional civilian casualties from cross-fire and IED incidents. Displacement remains minimal. Local populations in affected areas experience security concerns and restricted movement.
Outlook
ISIS cells unlikely to achieve territorial gains but expected to maintain low-level insurgent activity. Security force operations will continue degrading capabilities. Risk of localized flare-ups remains present but major escalation unlikely without significant organizational revival.
Key Actors
Iraqi Security Forces (ISF)Popular Mobilization Units (PMU)ISIS/Islamic State cellsIraqi GovernmentU.S.-led Coalition (advisory role)International Counter-ISIS Coalition
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Iraq – ISIS Remnants?
ISIS's territorial defeat in Iraq by 2017-2018 fragmented the organization into dispersed cells conducting asymmetric warfare. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) continue counter-insurgency operations against remaining ISIS operatives attempting to reconstitute networks and carry out attacks.
Who are the parties involved in the Iraq – ISIS Remnants?
The main parties are ISF/PMU vs IS cells. active
What is the current situation in the Iraq – ISIS Remnants?
ISIS remnants persist in rural and mountainous areas of central and northern Iraq, particularly in Anbar, Nineveh, and Salah ad-Din provinces. The group conducts sporadic attacks including ambushes, IEDs, and assassinations targeting security forces, government officials, and civilian infrastructure. The intensity remains limited with low casualty rates relative to peak conflict years.
What is the humanitarian impact of the Iraq – ISIS Remnants?
Limited humanitarian impact at current low severity levels. Occasional civilian casualties from cross-fire and IED incidents. Displacement remains minimal. Local populations in affected areas experience security concerns and restricted movement.
What is the outlook for the Iraq – ISIS Remnants?
ISIS cells unlikely to achieve territorial gains but expected to maintain low-level insurgent activity. Security force operations will continue degrading capabilities. Risk of localized flare-ups remains present but major escalation unlikely without significant organizational revival.