Sahel Crisis

Current Status

According to Reuters and AFP, jihadist insurgencies affiliated with JNIM (Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin) continue conducting attacks across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, with military responses ongoing from national armed forces.

Situation 2026

• AFP reports that JNIM-affiliated factions continue coordinated attacks on military and civilian targets across the Sahel, with particular activity in Mali's central regions
• Reuters indicates Mali's military junta has conducted counteroffensive operations, though sources describe mixed results in degrading insurgent capacity
• DW reports that Burkina Faso faces intensified militant activity in its northern and eastern zones, with the government declaring a state of emergency in multiple provinces
• According to UN OCHA, approximately 5.5+ million people are estimated internally displaced across the three countries due to ongoing insecurity
• Al Jazeera reports that Russian military advisors have increased presence in Mali following the junta's pivot away from French military cooperation

Background

The Sahel crisis began in 2012 when Tuareg separatists and jihadist groups launched an insurgency in northern Mali, which subsequently spread to Burkina Faso and Niger. AFP reports that JNIM and affiliated groups have exploited weak state capacity and intercommunal tensions to establish territorial control across the region. BBC notes the conflict has killed an estimated 20,000+ people and displaced millions since inception.

Humanitarian Impact

• ICRC reports severe disruption to healthcare delivery in conflict zones, with malnutrition and disease outbreaks among displaced populations
• UN agencies indicate that humanitarian access remains severely restricted in contested areas, limiting delivery of food assistance and medical supplies to vulnerable communities
• AFP reports that intercommunal violence has intensified alongside insurgent activity, creating compounded protection risks for civilians

Outlook

Reuters analysis suggests the conflict trajectory remains volatile given state fragility, limited external military support shifts, and entrenched insurgent networks. Humanitarian conditions are projected to worsen absent significant changes in security posture or sustained international engagement, per UN assessments.

Key Actors

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