Nigeria–Boko Haram/ISWAP Conflict

Current Status

According to Reuters and AFP, the Nigeria Military continues counterinsurgency operations against Boko Haram and ISWAP in the North, though both groups remain active and carry out periodic attacks.

Situation 2026

• Reuters reports continued military operations by Nigerian Armed Forces in Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states, with mixed results in degrading insurgent capabilities
• AFP indicates ISWAP has expanded activities in the Lake Chad region, conducting raids against military positions and civilian targets
• According to BBC reporting, Boko Haram maintains territorial control in pockets of northeastern Nigeria despite years of military campaigns
• Al Jazeera reports periodic abductions of civilians and aid workers by both groups, with negotiations for releases often protracted
• DW indicates cross-border militant movements into Cameroon and Niger complicate regional security efforts

Background

Boko Haram launched an insurgency in 2009 against the Nigerian state, and the conflict has killed over 100,000 people according to various estimates cited by AP and BBC reports. In 2016, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) split from Boko Haram and has since competed for territorial control in the Lake Chad Basin region, destabilizing Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger.

Humanitarian Impact

• UN OCHA reports approximately 8.9 million people require humanitarian assistance across the Lake Chad Basin, with Boko Haram/ISWAP violence cited as a primary driver of displacement
• The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) documents ongoing civilian casualties from airstrikes, crossfire, and deliberate attacks by armed groups targeting populated areas
• According to reports from Doctors Without Borders and Amnesty International, healthcare infrastructure collapse in conflict zones has resulted in preventable deaths from treatable diseases

Outlook

Regional analysts cited by Reuters and AFP assess that without coordinated multinational efforts and addressing underlying grievances, the conflict is likely to remain protracted. However, recent military reorganization efforts and increased international support may gradually constrain militant operations, though complete resolution remains uncertain.

Key Actors

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