Somalia – Al-Shabaab

Current Status

ongoing

Situation 2026

Al-Shabaab maintains territorial control in rural central and southern Somalia despite ongoing military operations by the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). The group conducts regular attacks including bombings, assassinations, and raids against government installations, military bases, and civilian targets in major cities. ATMIS forces (primarily Kenyan, Ethiopian, and Burundian contingents) continue counter-insurgency operations with mixed results. The conflict remains characterized by territorial fluctuation, with Al-Shabaab adapting tactics between conventional attacks and asymmetric warfare.

Background

Al-Shabaab emerged in the mid-2000s as an offshoot of the Islamic Courts Union following Ethiopia's 2006 military intervention. The group has conducted a sustained insurgency against successive Somali governments and African Union forces, exploiting state fragility, clan divisions, and ungoverned spaces. Designated as a terrorist organization by multiple nations, Al-Shabaab has evolved from a localized militia into a sophisticated militant force with transnational capabilities and affiliations with al-Qaeda.

Humanitarian Impact

Estimated 2.6+ million internally displaced persons; severe food insecurity affecting 4+ million people exacerbated by drought and conflict; limited humanitarian access in Al-Shabaab-controlled areas; high rates of casualties among civilians; disease outbreaks including cholera in displacement camps; disrupted healthcare and education systems; child recruitment by armed groups; widespread gender-based violence.

Outlook

Likely to persist in medium-term despite military pressure. Al-Shabaab retains recruitment capacity, financial resources from taxation and criminal activity, and territorial strongholds. Potential for escalation if ATMIS withdrawal accelerates or if FGS-regional state coordination weakens. Risk of spillover into Kenya. Prospects for conflict resolution remain limited without comprehensive political settlement and state-building progress.

Key Actors