Somalia – Al-Shabaab

Current Status

According to recent reporting from AFP and Reuters, Al-Shabaab continues to conduct attacks across Somalia despite ongoing military operations by the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).

Situation 2026

• AFP reports Al-Shabaab maintains operational capacity to conduct attacks in Mogadishu and regional areas despite ATMIS and FGS military operations • According to UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the security situation remains volatile with civilians caught between military operations and insurgent activities • Reuters indicates ATMIS has conducted counteroffensive operations, though sources show limited territorial gains against the entrenched insurgency • AP reports the group continues to levy taxes and administer territories under its control in rural Somalia, demonstrating administrative capacity beyond combat operations • DW and Al Jazeera reporting suggests limited international military support and funding constraints continue to hamper the effectiveness of Somali security forces

Background

Al-Shabaab, designated a terrorist organization by multiple countries, emerged around 2006 and has conducted an insurgency against Somalia's government for nearly two decades. Reuters and BBC reporting indicates the group has carried out suicide bombings, ambushes, and attacks on civilian and military targets despite successive military offensives. The conflict has resulted in an estimated 500,000+ casualties according to casualty tracking sources, with the group maintaining territorial control in parts of southern and central Somalia.

Humanitarian Impact

• ICRC and UN humanitarian agencies report widespread displacement, food insecurity, and limited access to healthcare in areas affected by fighting • According to UN estimates cited by BBC and AFP, millions of Somalis face acute food insecurity with malnutrition rates elevated in conflict-affected regions • Médecins Sans Frontières and ICRC reporting indicates civilian casualties from both insurgent attacks and military operations, with attacks on hospitals documented

Outlook

Sources indicate the conflict remains in a protracted stalemate with neither ATMIS/FGS forces nor Al-Shabaab demonstrating capacity for decisive military victory. Reuters and AFP analysis suggests sustainability of current operations depends on continued international support and internal Somali political cohesion, both of which remain uncertain.

Key Actors