Uganda – ADF Insurgency

Current Status

According to recent reporting, the Allied Democratic Forces continue conducting periodic attacks in western Uganda and the Eastern DRC border region despite ongoing military operations by the Uganda Armed Forces.

Situation 2026

• According to regional reporting, ADF cells remain active in Maoist-style insurgent operations conducting ambushes and attacks on military and civilian targets in western Uganda
• Reuters and AP have reported periodic security incidents attributed to ADF operatives in the Bundibugyo and Kasese districts
• DW and regional sources indicate the Uganda Armed Forces maintain ongoing counter-insurgency operations, though complete elimination of the group remains elusive
• Al Jazeera has reported ADF presence extends significantly into Eastern DRC, complicating cross-border military response coordination
• Unconfirmed reports via regional outlets suggest ADF has attempted recruitment and radicalization efforts in border communities

Background

The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) insurgency began in 1995 and has maintained a persistent presence in the Uganda-DRC border region for nearly three decades. AFP and regional sources report the group has evolved from a primarily Uganda-focused insurgent movement to one operating across the DRC border, particularly in the Kasindi area and Ruwenzori Mountains. The conflict has resulted in significant casualties among both civilians and combatants, with estimates exceeding 500 deaths.

Humanitarian Impact

• ICRC and UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) report civilians in border regions face restricted movement and limited access to markets due to security concerns
• Médecins Sans Frontières has documented medical emergencies in affected areas where healthcare access is compromised by ongoing insecurity

Outlook

Sources suggest the ADF insurgency is likely to persist at low-to-moderate intensity given the group's adaptation to terrain and cross-border sanctuary in the DRC. Sustained military pressure combined with improved regional coordination may incrementally degrade ADF capabilities, though sources indicate complete elimination remains unlikely without addressing underlying grievances and DRC state capacity.

Key Actors

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