The Sahel is the deadliest theatre of jihadist violence in the world in 2026. Three military-junta states — Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, now allied as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) — are fighting a losing war against two rival jihadist movements: JNIM, an al-Qaeda affiliate, and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP). The signature event of 2026 is JNIM's fuel blockade, which has put the Malian capital Bamako under de facto siege without a shot being fired inside the city.
Control in the Sahel is not neatly drawn. The juntas hold the capitals and major towns; vast rural zones fall under jihadist influence, and the frontline shifts with every convoy ambush and drone strike. This is a plain-language map of who is fighting whom, and who holds what, as of 2026. Track it live on the ConflictZone.io map and see the full Sahel Crisis breakdown.
The Armed Groups Fighting for the Sahel (2026)
JNIM — the dominant insurgency (al-Qaeda)
Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, led by veteran Tuareg commander Iyad Ag Ghaly, is the most powerful armed group in the Sahel. Rather than storm the cities, in 2026 JNIM has strangled them economically — blockading fuel into southern Mali and choking Bamako. Its use of armed drones has exploded from fewer than 10 recorded strikes in 2024 to roughly 80 in 2025.
Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP / ISIS-Sahel)
JNIM's rival, ISSP, is concentrated in the Liptako-Gourma tri-border zone where Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso meet. Known for extreme brutality against civilians, it has expanded aggressively and in February 2026 carried out a high-profile assault on an international airport, underscoring its growing reach.
The AES juntas, FAMa & Russia's Africa Corps
The Malian, Burkinabè and Nigerien armies anchor the government side. Mali's forces (FAMa) fight alongside Russia's Africa Corps — the Kremlin-controlled successor to the Wagner Group — which reinforced Mali with roughly 1,000 fighters from June 2026. Rights monitors have accused FAMa and Africa Corps of possible war crimes against civilians.
The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA)
A Tuareg separatist coalition in northern Mali seeking autonomy for Azawad. Long a distinct actor from the jihadists, the FLA joined JNIM in the coordinated April 2026 offensive, opening a second front against Bamako.
Sahel Control Map 2026 — Country by Country
| Country | Government | Main armed threats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mali | Junta (AES) + Africa Corps | JNIM, ISSP, FLA | Bamako under fuel blockade |
| Burkina Faso | Junta (AES) | JNIM, ISSP | ~40% of territory outside state control |
| Niger | Junta (AES) | ISSP, JNIM, ISWAP | Tri-border + Lake Chad pressure |
| Chad | Transitional govt (non-AES) | Boko Haram / ISWAP, northern rebels | Lake Chad basin + north |
| Coastal West Africa (Benin, Togo) | Elected govts | JNIM pushing south | New southern front |
Mali — the epicentre
The junta and Africa Corps hold Bamako and the cities, but JNIM's fuel blockade, begun in September 2025, has crippled the landlocked capital. Mali imports about 95% of its fuel by road; with more than 300 tankers burned, Bamako has seen rationing, closed schools and darker nights. In April 2026 JNIM and the FLA launched the largest offensive since the 2012 rebellion, striking Bamako, Kati, Gao, Sévaré and Mopti and killing Defence Minister Sadio Camara.
Burkina Faso — the most contested state
By many estimates around 40% of Burkina Faso lies outside effective government control. In February 2026 JNIM ran a week-long wave of coordinated attacks across the country's east and north, demonstrating mobility across huge stretches of territory.
Niger & the Lake Chad basin
Niger faces ISSP and JNIM in the western tri-border and pressure from Boko Haram and ISWAP around Lake Chad in the southeast. Neighbouring Chad is fighting the same Lake Chad insurgency plus rebellion in its north, while a Benin–Niger border dispute adds friction to the southern frontier.
The 2026 Escalation — Timeline
- Sep 2025 — JNIM begins blockading fuel convoys into southern Mali.
- Oct 2025 — the US and UK advise their nationals to leave Mali.
- Dec 2025 — the AES launches its joint Unified Force (~5,000 troops).
- Feb 2026 — JNIM's week-long offensive across Burkina Faso; ISSP hits an international airport.
- 25 Apr 2026 — largest Mali offensive since 2012: JNIM + FLA strike Bamako, Kati, Gao and Mopti; Defence Minister Sadio Camara killed.
- 28 Apr 2026 — JNIM formally declares the blockade of Bamako.
- Jun 2026 — Russia's Africa Corps reinforces Mali with ~1,000 fighters.
Why the Sahel Matters
The central Sahel is now the global epicentre of jihadist killing — roughly 9,362 deaths across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in 2025 alone, according to UN humanitarian monitors. The juntas' pivot from Western partners to Russia, JNIM's siege economics and ISSP's brutality are pushing the violence south toward the coastal states of the Gulf of Guinea, raising the risk of a far wider West African war. It remains one of the world's most consequential — and least-watched — conflicts.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sahel conflict?
A regional jihadist insurgency across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, driven mainly by JNIM (al-Qaeda) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP). The three countries are ruled by military juntas allied as the Alliance of Sahel States. In 2025 the region recorded about 9,362 conflict deaths — the deadliest jihadist theatre in the world.
Who controls Mali in 2026?
Mali's junta, backed by Russia's Africa Corps, controls Bamako and the main cities, while JNIM and ISIS-Sahel dominate large rural areas. Since late 2025 JNIM has blockaded fuel into Bamako, and in April 2026 launched its biggest offensive since 2012.
What is JNIM and what does it want?
JNIM is an al-Qaeda-linked coalition led by Iyad Ag Ghaly. It is the Sahel's dominant jihadist movement and aims to expel foreign forces, topple the juntas and impose its own rule. In 2026 its main weapon has been an economic blockade of Mali's landlocked capital.
Is Bamako going to fall?
Bamako has not fallen, but JNIM's fuel blockade has strangled it. Mali imports about 95% of its fuel by road, so convoy attacks have caused rationing, fuel queues and power shortages. JNIM formally declared a blockade of Bamako in April 2026, and Western governments have told their nationals to leave.
What is the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)?
A confederation of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, all ruled by juntas that seized power in coups. Formed in 2023, the AES quit ECOWAS in January 2025 and launched a ~5,000-troop joint force in December 2025, pivoting from Western partners toward Russia.
How many people have died in the Sahel conflict?
UN monitors (OCHA) recorded 3,737 security incidents and 9,362 deaths across the central Sahel between January and December 2025, making it the epicentre of jihadist-related deaths worldwide.
See the current situation on the free ConflictZone.io live map, with an escalation score and AI brief for the Sahel Crisis and 65+ other conflicts. Compare with the Mexico Cartel Map 2026 and the world's most dangerous countries.